NFL Player Props Week 5: Michael Wilson's Time to Shine

Not all chalk is bad chalk, and Arizona–Detroit is a game I’m happy to attack from multiple angles in Week 5. Let’s dive into my favorite player props and betting angles for Sunday.

Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

Michael Wilson 70+ Receiving Yards

Odds: -130 (FanDuel)
Additional play: Most receiving yards in the game (+320)

Michael Wilson stands out in what should be one of the most popular games on the slate.

Arizona is a 5.5-point home underdog, and the total is a massive 54.5. That gives us a chance at back-and-forth action and plenty of chances.

Wilson is earning every bit of that big contract. He owns a 45% air-yards share and a 27% target share. Those are big-boy numbers. Plenty of people expected Marvin Harrison to be the centerpiece of Arizona’s receiving corps for a few years, but Wilson has been the guy.

Detroit has been getting torched by receivers aligned outside, where Wilson runs nearly 80% of his routes. That’s the matchup I want for a player commanding this much downfield opportunity.

At -130, I like Wilson to reach 70 yards. I’m also taking a small splash on him to lead the game in receiving yards at +320.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the obvious name people will consider, but this could turn into a big Jahmyr Gibbs game for Detroit.

Meanwhile, Wilson could go nuclear with Arizona chasing points.

Nico Collins Over 5.5 Receptions

Odds: -122 (FanDuel)

I think this number is about one catch too low for Nico Collins against Tennessee.

The Titans haven’t surrendered a ton of explosive plays, but they’ve allowed offenses to move the ball through manageable completions. Their catchable-target rate allowed is a massive 87%, which is fantastic for this angle.

Tennessee has been strong against the run, while Houston hasn’t been able to establish much on the ground. That should steer the Texans toward throwing, with Collins in position to do damage on intermediate routes.

Robert Saleh has acknowledged that his scheme takes time to come together. Right now, the back end still looks like it’s working through communication issues, with coverage gaps appearing more often than he’d like.

Collins doesn’t need to hit a couple of bombs for this ticket to cash. He needs six catches, and the matchup gives Houston a reason to keep feeding him.

Tyler Allgeier Over 25.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -114 (FanDuel)

I’m going back to Arizona–Detroit, this time with Tyler Allgeier.

Allgeier outsnapped Jeremiyah Love last week. That doesn’t automatically make him the lead runner—the Cardinals attributed part of that usage to his pass protection—but it shows he remains involved.

I also didn’t “love” what Love said to the media this week, and there is also some more speculation that he’s banged up.

Detroit is allowing the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt and the highest explosive-run rate, according to Fantasy Points. That creates room for Allgeier to get through the first level and make a handful of carries count.

Obviously, we don’t want Arizona falling behind immediately and abandoning the ground game. But with a spread under a touchdown, there’s a reasonable path to a competitive game and enough rushing opportunities.

At 25.5 yards, we’re not asking for a takeover. A couple of productive carries can put this over within reach. This line seems at least five or six yards too low.