Anytime TD Picks and First TD Bets for Week 5: Why We Like Brenton Strange to Score

A little coffee and an early touchdown sweat? That sounds like a pretty good way to start a Sunday.

Anytime TD Picks & First TD Bets for Week 5

We’re opening the Week 5 slate with Jacksonville and Philadelphia at 9:30 a.m. ET before moving to two more players whose work near the goal line makes their touchdown prices worth a look.

Brenton Strange Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +300

I’m going back to Brenton Strange against Philadelphia.

The Eagles are a mess right now. Their offense hasn’t looked capable of consistently sustaining drives, which could give Jacksonville more possessions and more opportunities to get into scoring range. Philadelphia’s defense hasn’t exactly been something to write home about, either.

The Eagles have allowed an above-average share of targets to players aligned in the slot. That matters for Strange, who has run 41% of his routes from the slot, the second-highest rate on Jacksonville.

He’s a big body, but this isn’t a tight end who just stays attached to the formation and blocks.

More importantly, his red-zone role is ridiculous.

Strange has played 30 of Jacksonville’s 33 snaps inside the 20-yard line, good for a 90% share and comfortably the highest mark on the team. He’s also played every snap inside the 10 and every snap inside the five.

You really can’t ask for much more.

Strange scored in the opener but hasn’t found the end zone since. I’m not letting that push me away when the opportunity remains this strong. He also has 13 targets over the last two weeks, so we’re not relying exclusively on one goal-line play to get him involved.

The role has been better than the recent touchdown results. At +300 against this Philadelphia defense, I’m interested in betting on those results catching up.

Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +320

Darnell Washington is a massive human being, and Pittsburgh knows exactly how to use that size when it gets a favorable matchup.

He doesn’t play a huge overall workload, so this isn’t a bet on eight targets or a monster receiving day. The Steelers need to work their way into scoring range and give him a chance to win close to the goal line.

I think that’s more than plausible against Indianapolis.

Washington has played 70% of Pittsburgh’s snaps inside the 10-yard line this season. The Steelers have also thrown on 70% of their red-zone plays, and Washington leads the team with three end-zone targets.

That’s the combination I want: a player who gets on the field close to the goal line in an offense willing to throw there.

The Colts have been getting shredded defensively, and Washington is a nightmare to cover when Pittsburgh isolates him against a smaller defender. We saw the Steelers make a point of getting him involved last week when he scored against Cleveland.

At +320, I’m happy to take another shot.

Michael Wilson Anytime Touchdown

Odds: +170

Arizona–Detroit is going to attract plenty of DFS attention and betting action, and Michael Wilson is my favorite touchdown target in that game.

Neither defense has been good. Detroit can score consistently, though, which should keep Arizona throwing rather than sitting on the ball.

Wilson’s underlying numbers are those of an alpha receiver. He owns a 27% target share and a massive 45% air-yards share, giving him both consistent opportunity and the ability to score from distance.

The red-zone work is just as strong. Wilson has played 97% of Arizona’s snaps inside the 20, with eight targets there and four end-zone targets—matching Trey McBride in both categories.

At +170, the combination of role and game environment is too appealing to pass up.

Good luck this week!