Fantasy Football Rankings vs. Expert Consensus: Who I'm Higher/Lower On For Week 5

Welcome to the Week 5 fantasy football rankings edition of Cupps’ Cupboard! Every Friday this season, I’m going through the early iteration of my rankings for the upcoming week of games - identifying the players I have the biggest deltas on compared to Fantasy Life’s expert consensus, along with examining advanced metrics and utilization data.

As someone with a data-heavy background and overall approach to fantasy football, my rankings are created using a blend of several inputs:

• Fantasy Life weekly fantasy football projections, adjusted using fantasy football defense vs. position (DvP) rankings
• Prediction market data (essentially taking the current prices on various yardages, touchdowns, receptions, etc., and creating implied fantasy point projections)
• Vegas prop lines (rush/rec yards + receptions for pass catchers, pass/rush yards for quarterbacks). I will commonly refer to this as a player’s ‘Vegas Base’ projection: essentially, the floor a player offers without any touchdown odds

Using these sources as a baseline, I create my own hybrid projection system for each position and adjust from there.

Let’s get right into it.

Quarterback I Am Higher On In My Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Jacoby Brissett

• Fantasy Life: QB9
• My Rank: QB6 (+3)

Jacoby Brissett comes into Week 5 as possibly the best streaming option at QB that we’ve seen all season. The matchup is unbelievably juicy - Detroit currently ranks 31st in Defense vs. Position against the quarterback position, allowing a whopping 6.37 fantasy points per game more than the average matchup.

When looking at projection data, Jacoby is a massive standout. DvP-adjusted Fantasy Life rankings have him as the QB3, Prediction market implied projections have him as the QB6, and his Vegas base floor comes in as the QB4.

Unless you have a surefire QB1 that you start every week, I’d be looking to absolutely jam Brissett into my lineups.

QB I am Lower On In My Fantasy Football Rankings For Week 5

Tyler Shough

• Fantasy Life: QB11
• My Rank: QB17 (-6)

Last week the data LOVED Tyler Shough. This week … not so much. I have him outside my QB1 range, all the way down at QB17. Nothing against Shough or his weekly upside - he typically looks really underrated. However, the matchup against the Vikings looks brutal on paper:

• Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 13.4 (QB21)
• Prediction market implied projection: 17.0 (QB17)
• Vegas floor: 10.4 (QB16)

I’d be looking to pivot off of Shough for other potential QB options this week if I could.

Running Back I'm Higher On In My Week 5 Rankings Than Consensus

Aaron Jones

• Fantasy Life: RB12
• My Rank: RB9 (+3)

We’re partying like it’s 2022 over here with Aaron Jones back in the mid-range RB1 conversation. He draws the Saints matchup in Week 5, and it couldn’t look much better. Through four weeks, this is what RBs are working with against the Saints:

• 29th in DvP (+4.32 points on average)
• 138.5 rush yards per game (1st)
• 2.25 rush TDs per game (1st)

We saw what the “B Robinson” duo was able to put together in Week 4, and now it’s Aaron Jones’ turn. Locked-and-loaded RB1 this upcoming week.

RB I'm Lower On In My Week 5 Rankings Than Consensus

Omarion Hampton

• Fantasy Life: RB25
• My Rank: RB31 (-6)

Another week, another article talking about how much lower I am on Omarion Hampton compared to consensus. In Week 5, the Chargers get the Denver Broncos - a relatively middle-of-the-pack matchup, as they currently rank 15th in DvP (-0.48 points less to RBs on average).

As disappointing as the Los Angeles Chargers offense has been as a whole, Hampton’s role in the backfield is arguably more of a bummer. His average Utilization Score of 55.1 through four weeks ranks 28th, and his expected fantasy points per game of 11.5 puts him at RB30.

Things don’t look much better in the market’s expectations for Hampton in week 5. Prediction market data has him at 7.0 half PPR points (RB29), and his Vegas floor comes in at 5.6 points (RB27). I don’t want to start Hampton if I can avoid it.

Wide Receivers I'm Higher On In My Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Josh Downs

• Fantasy Life: WR25
• My Rank: WR21 (+4)

I know, I know … the Josh Downs Week 4 breakout against the Washington Commanders was a complete dud. While I’m not ranking him WR11 this time, I am still a bit higher than the Fantasy Life expert consensus at WR21.

Even after a complete disasterclass last week, the market isn’t scared off of Downs in week 5 against Pittsburgh:

• Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 9.9 (WR22)
• Prediction market implied projection: 10.8 (WR15)
• Vegas floor: 8.0 (WR16)

I’m going right back to the well with Downs this week as a mid-tier WR2.

Germie Bernard

• Fantasy Life: WR97
• My Rank: WR66 (+31)

This one’s for all my sickos out there looking to snipe potential Week 6 waiver wire gems ahead of time - I think Germie Bernard could be your guy.

Yesterday, Michael Pittman was officially placed on IR with a foot injury. When Pittman missed Week 2, Bernard was the main benefactor. He ran 85% of the routes and was second on the team with a 22.5% target share - only behind DK Metcalf.

The market is also drastically higher on Bernard this week than expert consensus:

• Prediction market implied projection: 4.9 (WR51)
• Vegas floor: 3.2 (WR49)

Obviously the numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but it just goes to show that he really should be viewed more as a back-end WR4/high-end WR5 than where he currently is. I wouldn’t recommend starting Bernard this week, but he’s my favorite stash ahead of Week 5.

WRs I'm Lower On In My Week 5 Rankings Than Consensus

Malik Nabers

• Fantasy Life: WR11
• My Rank: WR16 (-5)

It brings me no joy being the low man on Malik Nabers, especially after an awesome Week 4 performance, but the data simply doesn’t look great. While the Washington Commanders are one of the softer matchups for receivers at 23rd in DvP (+2.72 points per game to the position on average), the market seems to have some hesitation about Nabers:

• Fantasy Life DvP-adjusted projection: 10.9 (WR15)
• Prediction market implied projection: 10.3 (WR18)
• Vegas floor: 8.3 (WR15)

If you have Nabers, you’re probably starting him. Just recognize that it’s not nearly as much of a smash as it seems on the surface level.

Mike Evans

• Fantasy Life: WR20
• My Rank: WR25 (-5)

I really want to love Mike Evans this week, but the matchup against the Seahawks couldn’t be much tougher. Seattle currently ranks 3rd in DvP, allowing nearly 7 points less on average per game to the wide receiver position. This matchup takes a major toll on his projections:

• FantasyLife DvP-adjusted projection: 9.4 (WR27)
• Prediction market implied projection: 9.3 (WR23)
• Vegas floor: 6.6 (WR25)

I can definitely see a world where Mike Evans just goes out there and shows us that DvP doesn’t impact generational wide receivers, but he falls slightly out of my WR2 range with the matchup concern.

Tight End I Am Higher On In My Week 5 Fantasy Football Rankings

Hunter Henry

• Fantasy Life: TE22
• My Rank: TE14 (+8)

While Hunter Henry falls to a low-end TE2 in Fantasy Life consensus, he is nearly a back-end TE1 in my Week 5 rankings. Last week, when Drake Maye was able to start cooking in the passing game, Henry was a large benefactor:

• 5 targets (2nd on team)
• 5 receptions (2nd)
• 62 receiving yards (1st)
• 11.6 PPR points

In Week 5, the Patriots play the Raiders, who currently rank 26th in DvP against TEs (+3.41 more points per week to the position). The market is bullish on Henry in this matchup as well:

• FantasyLife DvP-adjusted projection: 7.6 (TE8)
• Prediction market implied projection: 8.1 (TE12)
• Vegas floor: 5.5 (TE12)

If you’re looking for a fill-in at the TE position this week, Hunter Henry is the one I’d be rocking with.

TE I'm Lower On In My Week 5 Rankings Than Consensus

Mark Andrews

• Fantasy Life: TE17
• My Rank: TE20 (-3)

The only tight end that comes in lower for me than Fantasy Life consensus in Week 5 is Mark Andrews, and it honestly isn’t that large of a difference. That being said, I thought he was worth mentioning since I found it pretty surprising to see Andrews all the way down here.

The Ravens draw Atlanta this upcoming week, who have been a surprisingly strong defense against the tight end position thus far - ranking 10th in DvP and allowing 1.84 points less per week on average.

Additionally, it’s looking like the Ravens are likely to be without Lamar in this one, and instead will be working with backup QB Tyler Huntley. I’d wager this is being priced into the low projections:

• FantasyLife DvP-adjusted projection: 5.9 (TE19)
• Prediction market implied projection: 6.7 (TE16)
• Vegas floor: 4.7 (TE16)

I’d be looking for other options at tight end this week if possible.