College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Georgia vs. Alabama
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College Gameday Game of the Week Pick, Odds and Prediction: Georgia vs. Alabama

Kody Malstrom breaks down the Georgia vs. Alabama College Gameday Game of the Week, with betting picks, odds, predictions and a player prop bet.

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The hype is as high as it can get in Tuscaloosa with Alabama hosting Georgia in a conference tilt that will shake up the SEC title picture. 

With the Bulldogs firing on all cylinders, the Crimson Tide will need to quickly get back into form on defense or risk falling too far behind on the scoreboard.

Let's take a look at this week's College Gameday Game of the Week from a betting perspective. 

Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Odds For Week 6

  • Spread: Alabama -1.5 (-105, FanDuel)
  • Moneyline: Alabama (-113, FanDuel)
  • Game Total: 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110, Fanatics)

A battle between two titans, Georgia and Alabama headline Saturday’s jam-packed slate, making it the obvious choice for the Gameday Game of the Week. Both the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs have managed to go undefeated up to this point of the season, putting the winner in the driver’s seat for the SEC conference championship.

After Alabama opened as a short underdog, bettors were quick to back the Crimson Tide, steaming the line up to -1.5. While the rapid reaction to the opening number was certainly eyebrow-raising, Alabama is far more battle-tested when comparing the two schedules, putting more conviction into the Crimson Tide’s metrics.

Speaking of metrics, the Crimson Tide enter Week 6 with glaring red flags looming over the defense while ranking well below league average in explosiveness. With a clear path to the red zone, expect the Bulldogs to set a scoring pace too fast for Alabama to keep up with and secure the victory.

Prediction & Pick For Georgia vs. Alabama Week 6 Matchup

  • The Pick: Georgia ML (+102, DraftKings)

Thoughts on the schedule aside, Georgia has been able to check every box on offense while ranking in the top 20 in success rate, points per opportunity and havoc allowed. After underwhelming against Oklahoma, Gunner Stockton was able to quickly bounce back in a look-ahead spot against Vanderbilt, torching the Commodores for 295 yards and three touchdowns while completing 78% of his passes.

Even though Georgia has been overly reliant on methodical drives to get into the red zone, the Crimson Tide’s inability to defend against explosive plays will help the Bulldogs flip the field position in a flash, leading to an uptick in scoring opportunities. When in the shortened field, expect points to be put on the board by taking advantage of a defense that ranks 106th in finishing drives.

On the other side of the ball, Alabama has been prone to stalling out when dealing with pressure, fielding a group that ranks 76th in havoc allowed. With Georgia’s defensive line consistently collapsing the pocket, Keelon Russell will be forced to weave the ball through narrowing passing lanes, increasing the Bulldogs' chances of creating a disruption.

Every early out will be detrimental to Alabama’s probability of winning while Georgia controls the clock, especially with the Bulldogs ranking 127th in tempo, further chipping away at the Crimson Tide’s total number of possessions on offense. Back Georgia to win outright with intentions of placing a separate wager should the Bulldogs' spread climb up to the key number of +3.

Best Player Prop Bet For Georgia vs. Alabama

Trae’shawn Brown - u37.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Heading into the year, question marks lingered over Alabama’s ground game after the Crimson Tide failed to address the running back room and offensive line in the offseason. Trae’shawn Brown has been able to give Alabama’s offense the production it needs to be versatile, climbing up to 29th in rush EPA per play.

Unfortunately for Brown, he will struggle to recapture the same success he had earlier in the year while fighting off a front seven that excels at stuffing the run, per Georgia’s top-10 marks in defensive rush success rate and explosiveness. Brown is also locked into a committee role with Daniel Hill, lowering his ceiling on a weekly basis.

Barring a broken run, expect the Bulldogs to hold Brown to minimal gains with each carry while bottling him up in the trenches, forcing Russell to air out the ball at a higher rate.

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